2024-12-13 05:43:47
Liang Zhonghua of Haitong Securities: The general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 has been determined, and the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee held a meeting on December 9 to analyze and study the economic work in 2025. Liang Zhonghua, chief macro analyst of Haitong Securities, said that judging from the statement of the meeting, the general direction of "positive" macro policy in 2025 is certain. Among them, "supernormal countercyclical adjustment" was put forward for the first time. Liang Zhonghua analyzed that "supernormal adjustment" may be different from QE (quantitative easing) in western countries, but refers to a traditional tool that has grown steadily in the past few years, making a breakthrough on the margin and playing the role of "keeping innovation" and "enriching and perfecting the policy toolbox". Judging from the policies that have been issued since September, this round of steady growth is a steady growth under the framework of "high quality". The high-quality framework will not change, and there will be no strong stimulation of flood irrigation. The meeting proposed to "implement a more active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy". Liang Zhonghua believes that next year's finance is expected to make further marginal efforts. It is expected that deficit ratio may improve. At present, 3.5%-4.0% is more likely, and the scale of special bonds may be marginally increased. Special government bonds supporting "duality" and "two innovations" will continue to be issued or increased. In addition, the debt-melting policy launched in November will also be the financial focus next year, and it is expected that special government bonds may be issued to supplement bank capital. In addition, the gradual interest rate cut will continue next year, and the structural monetary policy will continue to exert its strength. The meeting stressed that "it is necessary to vigorously boost consumption, improve investment efficiency, and expand domestic demand in all directions." In this regard, Liang Zhonghua believes that compared with Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party's statement of "expanding domestic demand with the focus on boosting consumption" in July, this meeting pays more attention to expanding domestic demand, and its support is expected to be further increased in the future. Since the beginning of this year, with the extra-long special national debt funds in place, the consumption of consumer goods trade-in policy has gradually emerged. There is still room for further efforts to expand domestic demand policies such as replacing old consumer goods with new ones next year. Liang Zhonghua also mentioned that this meeting clearly put forward "stabilizing the property market and stock market", which shows that the policy pays high attention to the property market and stock market. As an important signal to pay attention to the economy and expectations, the policies of the property market and stock market are also positive.Philippine imports increased by 11.2% year-on-year in October, while exports decreased by 5.5% year-on-year.Rong Sheng Development failed to pay the "20 Rong Sheng Real Estate MTN003" as scheduled, with a total principal and interest of 1,678.08 million yuan. On December 10th, Rong Sheng Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. announced that the "20 Rong Sheng Real Estate MTN003" issued by the company failed to pay the principal and interest of 1,678.08 million yuan as scheduled. The debt was due today, but the company failed to repay it in full. Rong Sheng Real Estate said that it will actively communicate with bondholders on the follow-up disposal plan to seek a solution. "20 Rong Sheng Real Estate MTN003" passed the extension plan in 2022, with the principal extended for one year and the interest extended for two years. (澎湃)
The scale of computing power in Hubei has exceeded 10,000 P. According to Hubei Provincial Bureau of Data, the scale of computing power in Hubei has exceeded 10,000 P, which is expected to drive the scale of computing power and big data industry in Hubei Province to reach 120 billion yuan. Internet access, map navigation, gene sequencing, climate prediction, high-end manufacturing ... Computing power is everywhere. P is the quantitative unit of computing power, and 10,000 P computing power is equivalent to the computing power of 5 million high-performance computers.1 trillion yuan of ultra-long-term special government bonds have been arranged! The combination of boxing has been effective. At present, the "double"+"two new" annual 1 trillion yuan ultra-long-term special national debt has all been arranged. In November, the purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry reached 50.3%, rising for three consecutive months. The "two-fold" and "two innovations" package of incremental policies is effectively promoting the sustained and steady progress of the economy. (CCTV News)The RMB rose linearly, and the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar both rose above the 7.25 mark in the morning session. As of 10: 10, the onshore and offshore RMB reported 7.2465 and 7.2487 respectively against the US dollar, with an average appreciation of more than 100 points in the day.
Media: Biden's government strives to ensure a ceasefire agreement in Gaza before January 20th next year. According to many people familiar with the matter, Biden's government is working more and more closely with the incoming Trump administration officials, trying to reach a ceasefire and hostage agreement before Trump is sworn in on January 20th to stop the conflict between Israel and Hamas. After the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement was reached, the negotiations on the Gaza ceasefire agreement resumed quickly and quietly. Not only Biden hopes to reach a ceasefire agreement in the last few weeks of his term, but Trump also hopes to start his second term when the Lebanese-Gaza conflict ends and the hostages held by Hamas are released, which has injected new vitality into the negotiations that collapsed a few months ago. Five sources familiar with the dialogue said that the two sides had closely coordinated and Trump's team learned about the hard work being done by Biden's government.Japan Life Insurance will acquire Resolution Life for about $8.2 billion.Shibor reported 1.4700% overnight, down 4.6 basis points; In 7 days, shibor reported 1.7840%, up 4.8 basis points; In three months, shibor reported 1.7480%, down 0.5 basis point.
Strategy guide
12-13
Strategy guide 12-13
Strategy guide 12-13